Late on Sunday, November 1, Tucker Carlson posted a roughly 750-word warning on X that set off a wave of alarm. “Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran,” he wrote. The target, he said, would be Pickax Mountain, a tunnel complex in central Iran. His reasoning was technical: “No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike.”
UNILAD Tech picked up the post on Monday, linking it to reports of new activity at an Iranian site seen in satellite images. None of Carlson’s claims have been independently verified, and Trump has publicly ruled out nuclear weapons. But the technical question he raised is real and worth unpacking. What is actually inside that mountain, what can commercial satellites see, and what can conventional bombs do against it?
The short version
- Carlson claims Trump could decide by November 7 whether to use a nuclear weapon on Pickaxe Mountain. He cites unnamed sources. The claim is unverified.
- Trump told Newsmax on October 15: “I wouldn’t use nuclear. We don’t have to.”
- Analysts estimate parts of the complex sit 80 to 100 meters (about 260 to 330 feet) under granite, deeper than the commonly cited reach of the GBU-57 bunker buster.
- CSIS saw record construction there in 2026. A newer analysis of October 7 imagery found the tunnel entrances sealed with earth and no major work under way.
- Experts point to conventional options that target entrances, ventilation shafts and support infrastructure instead of the deepest tunnels.
What Carlson actually claimed
Carlson’s post goes well beyond the headline. According to Mediaite and Anadolu Agency, he quoted an “informed observer” saying “Bibi calls Trump about it every day.” He argued Netanyahu needs the war for political survival after Israel’s recent election, and named Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe as following Netanyahu’s lead.
He also wrote that Trump was “hesitating” and listening to Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff, who he said argue that a deal with Iran can be made. “Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now,” Carlson wrote. He added a series of economic and humanitarian warnings: that 11 of the world’s roughly 850 supertankers were badly damaged in the Strait of Hormuz in October alone, and that fallout from a ground burst at the site could poison “the water supply for 100 million people.”
We couldn’t verify the tanker figure or the timeline, and Carlson didn’t name his sources. It’s also worth knowing where Carlson stands. He’s a former Fox News host who has been one of the loudest voices on the right against US involvement in a war with Iran.
What Trump has said
Trump has talked about Pickaxe Mountain openly for months, but not about nuclear weapons. In a July 13 TV interview, quoted by Arab News, he said: “We have eyes on it and Pickaxe Mountain is a possible target for a nice big fat shot right in the front door.” On October 15, he raised the site again on Newsmax and ruled out nuclear arms: “I wouldn’t use nuclear. We don’t have to.” And on Saturday at Mar-a-Lago, Anadolu reports, he told reporters that one or two Iranian nuclear facilities remained potential targets that the US could hit within 10 minutes.
So the public record shows a president who keeps the site on the target list and keeps saying a nuke isn’t needed. Carlson’s claim is that the private conversation is different. Right now, there’s no way to check that.
What is Pickaxe Mountain?
Pickaxe Mountain, known in Farsi as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, sits about two kilometers south of the Natanz enrichment complex. Iran began tunneling there in 2020 and said the site would house a plant for building centrifuges. International inspectors have never visited it. It was left off the target list in June 2025, when Israel and the US struck Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The US part of that operation, Midnight Hammer, involved more than 125 aircraft, including B-2 stealth bombers carrying 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker busters.
The reason it was skipped, many analysts believe, is depth. Experts cited by Arab News estimate parts of the complex lie 80 to 100 meters beneath a granite mountain. That lines up with Carlson’s “300 feet” figure.
What the satellites show
Almost everything the public knows about Pickaxe Mountain comes from commercial satellite imagery. Companies like Vantor, the company formerly known as Maxar, photograph sites like this at resolutions sharp enough to count vehicles and track individual roads. Think tanks then compare images over months and years. The two most recent analyses look at different moments and read them differently.
| Analysis | What it saw | What it concluded |
|---|---|---|
| CSIS, September 9, 2026 (imagery 2020 to 2026) | More road activity in 2026 than at any point in the site’s history. Hardened tunnel entrances, paved internal roads, spoil removal | Shift from digging toward probable internal construction. Can’t confirm or rule out that centrifuges were moved in. Likely not yet able to enrich |
| Institute for Science and International Security, imagery from October 7, 2026 | Eastern tunnel entrances still blocked by earth. Earthen roadblocks still in front of the western portals | Site is “currently neither operational nor continuing major construction.” Restricted access fits reports that valuable equipment is stored inside |
The CSIS findings fueled the “surge in activity” headlines. Joseph Rodgers of CSIS told Arab News that “construction this year is higher than at any point in the site’s history.” But the Institute for Science and International Security report, based on newer images, describes a site that has been sealed up for about two months. Both can be true. Iran may have built heavily through the summer and then buried the doors.
Here’s the limit of the technology, though. Satellites see roofs, roads, dirt and vehicles. They can’t see into a mountain. CSIS says plainly that imagery alone can’t confirm the Israeli intelligence claim, reported by The Wall Street Journal in July, that centrifuges were moved inside after last year’s 12-Day War.
Is a nuke really the “only option”?
This is where Carlson’s argument is weakest. He’s right that the deepest tunnels may be out of reach for a single conventional bomb. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is commonly cited as able to punch through around 200 feet of earth, and far less through hard rock. But military planners rarely try to vaporize a tunnel complex from above. They try to make it useless.
The Institute for Science and International Security lays out the approach it thinks makes most sense: a series of bunker busters aimed at weak points such as ventilation shafts, combined with collapsing the entrances and destroying utilities and support buildings outside. Its analysts say they have found one probable and one possible ventilation shaft on satellite images. They also note that CNN reported US planners are considering the GBU-43 MOAB, a roughly 21,600-pound bomb that isn’t a bunker buster but produces the most powerful non-nuclear blast in the US arsenal. The US used it once in combat, in Afghanistan in 2017.
Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies made a similar point on Fox: Washington can “bury their entrances, and raise the political cost” for Iran to dig back out. That’s not the same as destroying what’s inside. But it’s the pattern at Natanz and Isfahan, which the institute describes as having been in “forced, monitored closure” for more than a year.
| Option discussed by analysts | How it works | Main drawback |
|---|---|---|
| GBU-57 strikes on weak points | Repeated hits on shafts, portals and the same impact point | May not reach the deepest halls |
| Collapse entrances and utilities | Seal the site and cut power, air and access | Iran can try to dig back in |
| GBU-43 MOAB | Huge surface blast that pushes a shockwave into tunnels | Not designed to penetrate rock |
| Diplomacy | Negotiated limits and inspections; Carlson says Vance and Witkoff favor this | Talks have repeatedly stalled |
A nuclear strike would be a different category altogether. No country has used a nuclear weapon in war since 1945. Carlson’s own post makes the case against it, arguing it would set a precedent that Russia, North Korea, India or Pakistan could point to.
The bigger picture
All of this sits on top of a conflict now in its eighth month. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted repeatedly, energy prices have swung, and Iran has threatened to widen its maritime retaliation. We’ve covered how the war has spread into tech, from a surge in GPS jamming and spoofing to the risks it poses to global chip supplies and AI expansion.
2020 …….. Tunneling begins near Natanz
Jun 2025 …. Midnight Hammer strikes Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan. Pickaxe skipped
Jul 2026 …. WSJ: Israeli intel says centrifuges moved inside
Jul 13 …… Trump: “a nice big fat shot right in the front door”
Sep 9 ……. CSIS: record construction activity in 2026
Oct 7 ……. Satellite image: tunnel entrances sealed with earth
Oct 15 …… Trump on Newsmax: “I wouldn’t use nuclear”
Nov 1 ……. Carlson post: nuclear strike “within days”
Nov 7 ……. Carlson’s claimed decision date
Sources and further reading
- UNILAD Tech: Tucker Carlson claims Trump faces nuclear strike decision within days
- Mediaite: Tucker Carlson Warns Netanyahu Is Goading Trump to Nuke Iran
- Anadolu Agency: Trump could launch nuclear strike on Iran within days, commentator claims
- Institute for Science and International Security: Activity Remains Dormant at Pickaxe Mountain
- Iran International: Satellite imagery shows surge in construction at Pickaxe Mountain (CSIS)
- Arab News: Is Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain beyond the reach of US bunker-busters?
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